The release of the report Better
Growth, Better Climate last week and the People’s Climate
March just before the UN Climate Summit this week has focused much public attention
on the climate change crisis. The report by the Global Commission on Economy
and Climate chaired by the former President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon, and
co-chaired the notable economist, Nicholas Stern, provides support to the
notion that the actions to mitigate climate change are not expensive and will
not even hurt the economy. Many commentators have used this report to buttress
their calls for strong action to curb greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions by turning
off fossil fuel power generation, stop subsidizing fossil fuels, and using the
revenues in alternate ways to help develop clean energy sources and grow the
economy.
Writing in the NY Times, Mark Bittman, argues
for developing small, decentralized, clean energy sources instead of projects
like the Tar Sands and fracking. To further support this approach he refers to Naomi
Klein’s book, This Changes Everything, showing
Germany’s success in transforming its energy system, "Klein cites the
example of Germany, which reached a goal of making about 25 percent of its
energy clean and renewable within 15 years..." For the world’s 4th
largest economy to get 25% of its energy from renewable sources would be truly
remarkable. Unfortunately, Klein, Bittman, and others have conflated energy
with electricity. While Germany now derives 25% of its electricity from renewable resources, these sources amount to only
9% of the total energy consumption.
Through the policy of Energiewende, Germany has made huge
progress in installing renewable energy systems like wind and solar. Since
2005, the installed capacity of wind power has nearly doubled, from 18 GW to 34
GW. Solar power has had an even more spectacular rise, from 2 GW to 35 GW. While
this is commendable, it also shows how hard it has been to get to the 10% mark
in 15 years.
It is instructive to look at the numbers.
The 2014 BP Statistical Review of World
Energy lists energy use in various countries by the sources. The total
energy use in Germany was 325 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE). The
contributions of different sources in MTOE units are as follows:
Source
|
Amount (MTOE)
|
Percentage
|
Oil
|
112.1
|
34.5
|
Natural gas
|
75.3
|
23.2
|
Coal
|
81.3
|
25.0
|
Nuclear
|
22.0
|
6.8
|
Hydroelectric
|
4.5
|
1.4
|
Renewables
|
29.7
|
9.1
|
In converting the energy from sources
that produce electricity directly, the BP compilation does not use just the
energy equivalence (1 MTOE = 12 MWh), but allows for inefficiencies of thermal
power sources and uses 4.43 MWh as the equivalent of one MTOE.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also
compiles data for various . Its data for Germany summarized in this one-page overview
also confirms that renewable resources make up 11% of Germany’s primary energy
consumption, and about 25% of its electricity production. Before we get too
excited and attribute the 25% electricity to the rise of wind and solar
installations, lets take a look at the breakdown provided by the IEA. About of
half the renewable electricity comes from biofuels and waste (9%) and
hydroelectric (3%); the remaining 14% are from wind (9%) and solar (5%).
Figure: Electricity generation in Germany,
2013: Renewables provided 25% of electricity, while coal still dominated with
47% and nuclear produced 15%.
The challenge of providing cubic miles
of oil worth of affordable energy so people can lead healthy productive lives
while curtailing greenhouse gas emissions to levels that make an impact remains
wickedly tough. Cheer leading alone will not get us there; commitment and
persistence are the watchwords.
