Update 2024: Impressive Surge in "Renewables" but Fossil Fuels Rule

Today, I heard about the prowess of GPT-5, which now powers ChatGPT, and out of curiosity I asked it to generate a blog post updating the one I had written in 2016. It "thought" for about 15 seconds, "analyzed" data for another few and then produced the following complete with citations!

2024 Global Energy Scene: Progress Amid Persistent Challenges

1. Energy Demand & Total Supply

Global energy supply rose by 2% in 2024, driven by demand across every energy source—fossil fuels, nuclear, hydro, and renewables alike Energy InstituteReuters. This mirrored the fastest growth across all sources since 2006 Reuters.

2. Fossil Fuels Still Dominant

Despite massive gains in clean energy, fossil fuels remained dominant—accounting for 86% of the energy mix Energy Institute. Natural gas demand surged 2.5%, extracting the largest share of the increase among fossil fuels. Coal remained the single largest source globally, rising 1.2%, while oil grew less than 1% American Gas AssociationReuters.

3. Record CO₂ Emissions

Energy-related CO₂ emissions climbed 1%, reaching approximately 40.8 GtCO₂e—a new all-time high for the fourth consecutive year Reuters.

4. Renewable Energy Expansion

Wind and solar led the clean energy charge, expanding 16% in 2024, nearly nine times faster than overall energy demand ReutersEnergy Institute. The UN underscored this shift as reaching a "positive tipping point," noting that renewables accounted for 74% of growth in global power generation and 92.5% of new electricity capacity, helped by rapidly falling costs (Solar – 41% cheaper; Wind – 53% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuels) AP News. IRENA reports that global renewable capacity additions totaled 582 GW—19.8% above 2023, with PV contributing 452 GW and wind 114 GW—bringing installed capacity to 4,443 GW by year-end Wikipedia.

5. U.S. Energy Highlights

The U.S. set a new record with total energy production exceeding 103 quads in 2024 (+1% from 2023) U.S. Energy Information Administration:

• Natural gas remained the largest source (~38%),

• Crude oil hit a record 13.2 million barrels per day (+2%) U.S. Energy Information Administration,

• Coal production dropped to its lowest level since 1964 (~512 million short tons) U.S. Energy Information Administration.
  Renewables rose significantly—biofuels reached a record 1.4 million bpd (+6%), solar grew 25%, and wind 8% U.S. Energy Information Administration. On the consumption side, renewables hit a record 8.6 quads (+5%), nuclear held steady at 8.2 quads, and coal consumption fell to 7.9 quads—lowest since 1949 U.S. Energy Information Administration.

6. Electrification & AI’s Energy Impact

The rising demand for electricity—driven by cooling, electrified transport, industry, data centers, and AI infrastructure—outpaced total energy growth, reflecting faster-than-average power sector expansion IEA. Energy-hungry AI data centers are adding strain to grids, often turning to gas-powered solutions, including converting old coal plants, with over 85 such projects underway globally Financial TimesBusiness Insider.

7. Geopolitical Dynamics

Rich Western nations—including the U.S., UK, Canada, Norway, and Australia—are leading a wave of new oil and gas exploration in 2024. This expansion threatens to release nearly 12 billion tonnes of emissions, undermining climate goals The Guardian. Additionally, geopolitical tensions—especially stemming from Ukraine and the Middle East—are reshaping global supply chains and energy security strategies, reinforcing the prominence of domestic clean energy investments ReutersAxios.

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Outlook & Reflection

Much like 2016, 2024 underscores a paradox: renewables are surging, but as additive, not yet substitutive, with fossil fuel use and emissions still rising. While clean energy growth is historic, the world remains off pace for COP28’s goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030 ReutersAP News. Energy security worries, AI’s rising footprint, and geopolitical strains complicate a smooth energy transition.

 I then asked Chat GPT to generate a chart and use country-specific information as illustrative examples, and it produced the following. 

 

 

 

2024 — Global energy: big renewables growth, but fossils still rule

Executive summary

• Global primary energy (2024): ~620 EJ (Energy Institute). Fossil fuels still account for about 86% of that total — roughly 533 EJ of fossil vs 87 EJ of non-fossil energy. (Chart 1 below.) Energy Institute

• CO₂ from energy reached a new record in 2024 (~40.8 GtCO₂e), driven by rising use of fossil fuels even as renewables expand rapidly. Reuters

• Renewables (wind + solar) remain the fastest-growing part of the system (double-digit growth rates), but are being added in parallel with fossil growth rather than entirely replacing it. Energy Institute

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Charts (embedded)

Chart A — Global primary energy (2024): Fossil vs non-fossil
(From Energy Institute totals: global primary = 620 EJ, fossil ≈ 86%.) Energy Institute

(Displayed below — the pie shows ~533.2 EJ fossil / 86.8 EJ non-fossil.)

Chart B — U.S. primary energy production (2024, approximate breakdown)
(EIA reports U.S. total production ≈ 103.3 quads in 2024 — I used EIA headline numbers and reported shares to build an illustrative breakdown: natural gas ≈ 38% of production, crude ≈ 27%, reported renewables ≈ 8.6 quads, nuclear ≈ 8.2 quads, remainder = other fossil/NGLs. Source: EIA.) U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

(Displayed below — the pie shows natural gas and oil as the largest slices, renewables rising but still a minority of primary production.)

If you want the charts exported as PNG/SVG or resized for your blog, tell me the exact sizes and I’ll create downloadable files for you.

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Country/region snapshots (illustrative highlights & what to watch)

United States

• Production record: The U.S. produced a record ~103.3 quads in 2024, up ≈1% from 2023. Multiple fuels set records (natural gas, crude oil, NGLs, solar, wind, biofuels). U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

• Electricity / Renewables: Renewables continued to expand strongly — utility and distributed solar plus wind caused a meaningful rise in renewable generation (EIA reports renewable electricity growth in 2024). Renewables supplied roughly a quarter of U.S. electricity in 2024. ElectrekEnerdata

• Takeaway: U.S. is simultaneously scaling renewables and producing record fossil output — a classic transition-phase pattern.

China (Asia Pacific)

• Massive renewables roll-out: China added more renewable generation in 2023–24 than the rest of the world combined, driving global renewables growth figures reported by the EI. Asia Pacific remains the world’s largest energy-consuming region (~292 EJ in 2023 per the EI). Energy Institute

• Takeaway: China’s buildout of solar and wind is a global engine for renewables but overall energy demand growth there still needs fossil backup in many sectors.

India & South Asia

• High growth potential: South Asia consumed ~45 EJ in 2023; energy demand growth is driven by development needs and population growth (EI). This region is a major growth frontier for both fossil consumption and renewable deployment. Energy Institute

Europe / EU

• Diversifying supply & electrification: Europe continues to push electrification and improve gas diversification after recent geopolitical shocks. Several EU nations show plateauing fossil demand in power, but industry and heating keep system complexity high. (EI regional analysis.) Energy Institute

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What's new since your 2016 model (quick comparative takeaways)

• Renewables scale: The pace and scale of wind and solar additions far outstrips anything seen in 2016 — but they are still not yet displacing total fossil consumption at the global level. Energy Institute

• Record energy CO₂: Unlike the hoped-for declines, energy-related CO₂ set records through 2024 — a major difference from the optimism in some 2016 scenarios. Reuters

• U.S. production dynamics: The U.S. now regularly records >100 quads of production (a new normal); renewables are a much larger share of electricity but primary energy remains fossil-heavy. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

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Short methodology note (so your readers know)

• Global numbers: come from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 (their data tables & pdf). I used headline totals and shares from that source for the global chart/text. Energy Institute

• U.S. numbers: come from EIA pages summarizing 2024 (Monthly Energy Review / Today in Energy pieces). The U.S. pie uses EIA totals and reported fuel-shares (I made a small number of arithmetic allocations to produce a clear, blog-friendly graphic — I flagged these as approximate). U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

Fusion is Great—But Fission Can’t Wait

 

Readers of this blog know of my advocacy of nuclear power—in particular fission power. Fission power still faces several hurdles including those of financing and long-term storage of spent fuel. On more than one occasion I have been asked if instead of pushing forward with fission power we should wait for fusion power, which is making substantial advances. Indeed, the past few years have brought exciting breakthroughs in fusion energy, and fusion power relies on abundant elements (hydrogen, helium, and boron) and does not produce long-lived radioactive waste. In this post, I will review these advances and summarize the remaining technical challenges. Those interested in a more thorough discussion may want to refer to this ADL report.

First though, a brief recap of the physics of fusion processes. Light nuclei have less binding energy per nucleon than mid-sized nuclei (like helium or iron). When small nuclei fuse, some mass is converted into energy via Einstein’s equation, E=mc², releasing vast amounts of energy Nuclear fusion is the process where two light atomic nuclei (typically isotopes of hydrogen, like deuterium (D) and tritium (T)) combine to form a heavier nucleus (like helium), releasing tremendous amounts of energy in the process.

D + T → ⁴He  +  n, or

D +  ³He → ⁴He  +  2n

What makes the process difficult to achieve is that the atoms must be brought very close to each other. Normally, the repulsive coulombic forces exerted by negatively charged electron clouds surrounding the nucleus prevent atoms from getting closer than a few picometers (10^-12 m). The strong nuclear forces which hold the protons and neutrons together become operative at very close distances, femtometer (10^-15 m) scale. If the atoms are heated to very high temperatures, millions of degrees, the electrons are stripped away from the nuclei producing a plasma—essentially, ionized gas. At these high temperatures, the nuclei have sufficient kinetic energy to overcome the even higher repulsion as they approach each other closer and the collide to produce fusion. This is the process that powers the sun and stars.

On earth, this was first achieved by raising the temperature of fuel hydrogen to millions of degrees from the heat of a plutonium bomb to trigger the fusion of hydrogen. Although we can release energy of fusion in the H-bomb, releasing fusion energy in a controlled manner for producing power would require confining and sustaining a plasma while continuously feeding in fuel and extracting the released energy.

Two main approaches of confining plasma are (a) magnetic and (b) inertial. The former uses magnetic coils (Tokomak and Stellerator) arranged in a donut shape to steer the plasma away from the walls and circulating within it at a high speed. There are designs in which the plasma is accelerated down a tube Using several different heating techniques such as ohmic, RF heating, or injecting neutral particles, the plasma is heated to 100 million degrees (Kelvin) to achieve fusion. For reference, the temperature in the core of the sun is around 15 million K. The magnets keep the plasma away from the walls of the containing vessel. Inertial confinement relies on instantly heating a pellet of fuel gases with multiple lasers.

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) uses the inertial confinement approach. It dumped 2.05 MJ of energy from 192 lasers firing simultaneously on a gold cylinder containing D and T to achieve fusion. The experiment produced in 3.15 MJ demonstrating a major scientific breakthrough—a net energy gain with Q = 1.5. This announcement unleashed a frenzy of activity to develop fusion power. Private companies like Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) are racing ahead, with SPARC—a compact, high-field tokamak—set to demonstrate net energy gain by 2027. Meanwhile, Helion Energy signed a power purchase agreement with Microsoft, betting on fusion-powered electricity by 2028.

Achieving Q > 1, is a remarkable feat! The NIF reported getting 50% more energy than dumped into the fuel pellet by the lasers. For steady power generation, the desired value of Q should be 50 or more. Further, this calculation does not include the 500 MJ of electricity that went into powering the lasers. Overall process is far from being energy neutral, let alone a power producer. Among the many remaining challenges is figuring out the process for replacing the fuel-filled cylinders one after another in the precise location and be able to fire the lasers at repeatedly. At present there is no pathway for this approach to be used for power production.

Magnetic confinement approach offers pathways for continuous fuel feeding and energy extraction, but it has yet to demonstrate net energy gain. Another issue that will need addressing is the supply of tritium. Tritium is an unstable isotope with a half-life of 12 years. There are no deposits of tritium that can be mined or extracted; it must be produced prior to use either by neutron activation of ⁶Li or in nuclear reactors that use heavy water as a moderator.

Most of fusion processes are accompanied by the release of fast-moving neutrons that cannot be confined by magnetic fields, and they can damage the containing vessel. There is another scheme for fusion that relies on a stable isotope of boron, ¹¹B, for fuel and (TAE Technologies) and does not involve release of fast-moving neutrons. It involves bombarding boron nuclei with protons and the fusion process results in three alpha particles:

¹¹B +p→ 3 ⁴He

The higher nuclear charge of boron (six protons) means that the incoming proton has a substantially higher barrier of coulombic repulsion before fusion can occur. The required temperature for this process is 3 billion degrees!

Despite recent progress, commercial fusion remains decades away. Even optimistic forecasts place the first grid-scale plants in the 2040s. The engineering hurdles—plasma confinement, tritium breeding, and material durability—are immense. So, while we chase the "holy grail" of fusion, we can’t afford to ignore the proven, low-carbon power source we already have, namely nuclear fission. Modern reactors are safer, more efficient, and essential for decarbonization. Countries like France show how fission can deliver 70% of electricity with near-zero emissions. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) with lower startup costs offer faster deployment and flexibility. With the World Bank now reversing its policy against financing nuclear power project there is a real opportunity to rapidly expand global nuclear power generation.

Thank you Mr. Banga!

While researching for my book, A Cubic Mile of Oil, I realized the necessity for nuclear power to meet global energy needs. Ever since, I have been an active proponent for nuclear power. Some of you may have seen my open letters on this blog to leaders and decision makers advocating for nuclear power. No wonder I was very pleased to read the news that the World Bank has finally lifted its ban on funding nuclear power. I reversed its policy and will now finance nuclear energy projects should host countries choose to do so. 

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/world-bank-agrees-to-end-ban-on-funding-nuclear-energy

The World Needs Nuclear Power

 

I recently learned about Notebook LM from Google. It is an AI tool with an ability to cull information from a variety of sources like documents, presentations, videos, etc. and generating briefing papers and podcasts. I gave it try by submitting some of my hour-plus long video presentations and was quite pleased with the short podcasts it generated. Next, I tried feeding it six of my blog posts, all related to nuclear power, and I am posting the resulting podcast here. Take a listen and let me know your thoughts.