Here Comes The Sun

 

Last month I heard Bill McKibben on a Zoom call when he gave an inspirational talk to a group of environmental activists. He is releasing a book titled “Here Comes the Sun,” and his recent talks and articles appear to be part of its promotion. At first, I thought he might discuss fusion technology, which truly would bring the sun to earth.

While I respect Bill McKibben’s commitment to addressing climate change, I disagree with his focus on wind and solar as primary solutions. He builds the narrative that with the rise of wind and solar power an energy transition is underway. I would dearly love to believe that, but numbers don’t lie. Thirty years ago, the global share of fossil energy was 83%; barring minor fluctuations—as during COVID—it has remained the same ever since. While individual countries may show shifts in energy sources, the global pattern remains largely unchanged.

To further bolster his argument, McKibben points out that amount of wind and solar capacity added in recent years exceeds all other sources, “Last year ninety-six percent of new generating capacity was met by renewables….” That sounds impressive, but there are two problems with this argument: one, the added capacity provides a tiny fraction of the global energy consumption, and two the added capacity alone does not translate into energy production. Wind and solar are intermittent sources and one must factor in the fraction of time they are operating at nameplate capacity. Capacity factors for wind and solar are often less than 20%, the contribution of solar energy to the global mix remains very low.

To put the gigawatt of solar being installed by China every eight hours in perspective, note that it takes about twenty terawatts of solar power to meet the current global energy demand, and it will take an additional equivalent amount to provide energy to the under-served communities. The environmental footprint of wind and solar sources is enormous. Meeting global demand would require enormous amounts of land and materials, putting pressure on natural habitats and supply chains, and limiting the scalability of these technologies.

The solution to our climate crisis, which is essentially an energy crisis, lies in using nuclear power. Unfortunately, by opposing its deployment through fear mongering climate activists have hindered true progress towards emissions reduction.